Another great third round in the making for 2008. I’ve been watching NCAA play-off soccer for 28 years now and every year seems like I see something new.
I am thinking about the upsets thus far in the tournament and can only see one that was a real surprise. And that is of course Johns Hopkin’s win over York. I have mentioned to more than a few fans that I figured York for a Final Four position, and earlier in the season, noted on this board that short of a Wheaton (Ill.) type PK upset, York would be a championship contender. Well, I guess the Blue Jays pulled a Wheaton…
Tomorrow’s toughest match to predict has to be undefeated Montclair State against Messiah. If one looks at common opponents, MSU might have an edge, but Messiah can’t be overlooked in the post-season. The Falcons did play a tight one with Medaille and that match haunts me a bit, but the MSU offense will be up against J.D. Binger. If he comes up big in tomorrow’s match, we may see yet another round of PKs. Otherwise, the Red Hawks have to be a one goal favorite.
At Swarthmore, Trinity and Ohio Wesleyan face off. That’s another tough one to call. While Trinity has played strong all season, they do seem to prefer a come-from-behind mentality that might fail them against a Jay Martin coached team. This one will have some offense and some great scoring action, but Trinity should come away with the upper hand and with the win.
Amherst has been quietly making its way to the Final Four. Jake Ducker and the Lord Jeffs have been building momentum with strong consistent play and should they make it past Swarthmore, they will give the OWU/Trinity winner some trouble. The Garnet won’t be easy though. They are consistent and while not a high scoring team, they don’t give up many goals either.
Now that Johns Hopkins has made it past York (and believe me, they are relieved), I’m doubtful they’ll get past the Ducks. Stevens has been playing well; their 2-0 win over Rhode Island College was a good win, and they haven’t been scored on in the last five matches. Their only bad loss was early in the season against Swarthmore 2-0. I give Stevens a one goal win in regulation. In the earlier match, Middlebury has to play Carleton without some key defensive players due to injury. This has been the Panthers hallmark and how the team adjusts will make all the difference in this match. Brian Bush is one of Division III’s top goalkeepers and should the Panthers provide a solid line on front of him, Carleton will have tough time scoring.
At Loras, Ohio Northern continues their surprising run. No one figured they’d beat Wheaton 4-1, and then they wore down a strong Carroll side. With their scoring ability, they have a real chance to make a run at the Final Four. But they have to avoid the inconsistent play that has dogged them a bit this season. Hobart will be a big challenge and may win by two goals if Ohio Northern doesn’t bring their best to the match. Otherwise, this could go to overtime and PKs.
On the women’s side, Williams will be tough to beat and I see them defeating TCNJ and moving on to the Lynchburg/Ithaca winner. The Ephs have been consistent all year and should be able to contain TCNJ’s high-powered offense.
On paper, Messiah should be all over the Maroons. This could be a two goal win for Messiah. But Chicago is playing their best soccer of the year right now and with matches against Wash U and Wheaton (Ill.) earlier in the season, they’ll be ready for the Falcons. But it will be an uphill battle. Falcon senior Kacie Klynsta has seen her sister win two national championships at Wheaton (Ill.) and would love to add another one for herself - and the Falcons have been to four straight Final Fours, narrowly losing to Wheaton in championship in 2007. They will be a motivated team.
And speaking of Wheaton, Coach Peter Felske and the women’s soccer program has won three out of the last four national titles, while Messiah won the title in 2004. These two programs have developed quite a recent history but haven’t faced each other many times and so the real rivalry remains with the men’s programs. But should the Thunder and the Falcons meet again in the final match, a sudden and high-level rivalry will be born.
Wheaton plays Carleton on Saturday after already defeating Wash U 3-0. That was a surprising result as the Bears have been strong all year. If the Thunder team is really on a roll, they may walk off with a 2-0 or 3-1 win against Carleton. It will be tough for Carleton to win this one, but with a steady defensive effort, they’ll have a chance - if someone can shut down Thunder All-American Taryne Lee.
On the other side at Messiah, UW-Stevens Point makes it’s second straight appearance in the Sweet 16. And with Amanda Prawat in the Pointer uniform, I think we’ll see Eastern’s surprising run in this year’s post-season come to an end. I like what Eastern has done this year, especially in their upset of Rowan last weekend, but I doubt they can overcome the Pointers.
Johns Hopkins and William Smith might be the key match-up for the women on Saturday. These two programs are both playing well, and neither has a clear advantage. Although the Blue Jays may have the edge, it will be a close match - hopefully settled before the second overtime is complete. In the other match, I think Amherst keeps it’s run alive with a 1-0 win.
Keep an eye on all the matches and let’s see how this all comes out on Sunday evening!
